July’s 9.6% Bounce Puts 2026 Swiss Watch Exports Back in Positive Territory
July 2026 reversed the tone of the Swiss watch year. According to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry FH, exports rose almost 9.6% that month to more than 2.6 billion francs. The federation said seven-month cumulative performance moved into positive territory as a result, after a first half that had closed 0.7% lower at 12.8 billion francs.
From a flat half-year to a positive year-to-date
The H1 2026 briefing, published 21 July, had described a “stable first half amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty.” Wristwatch value was 12.2 billion francs (−0.6%) while units rose 2.3% to more than 7 million. Forecasts at that point pointed to a full year close to 2025, not a rebound. The August 19 monthly note then labelled July “sustained momentum” and confirmed that the year-to-date line had crossed back above zero.
Trade press had already recorded an earlier bounce. According to WatchPro, citing FH figures, February 2026 exports rose 9.2% after a weak January, putting the first two months up 2.8%. Shipments to the United States in January–February were valued at 757 million francs, up 5.3% and more than double Japan’s 299 million. France’s January–February total reached 276 million francs, up 47.4%, which the FH again tied to transit rather than French domestic sales.
| Period | Headline figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| January–February 2026 | +2.8% year to date; February +9.2% | WatchPro, citing FH |
| First half 2026 | CHF 12.8 bn, −0.7% | FH, 21 July 2026 |
| Wristwatches, H1 | CHF 12.2 bn, −0.6%; units +2.3% | FH |
| July 2026 | +9.6%, over CHF 2.6 bn | FH monthly statistics |
| January–July 2026 | Cumulative value back in positive territory | FH |
| Full-year 2026 (FH view in July) | Relatively stable versus 2025 | FH H1 briefing |
The constraints that still sit under the rebound
The July jump does not cancel the cost and policy list the FH set out in July. A strong Swiss franc continued to lift foreign-currency prices. Dollar weakness since early 2025 reduced receipts from the largest market. Record gold prices raised both selling prices and manufacturing costs. Additional U.S. tariffs, first felt in the second quarter of 2025, left a volatile comparison base into 2026. Conflict in the Middle East from late February hit a region worth about 10% of Swiss watch exports.
Retailers stayed cautious on restocking. The federation said some suppliers were approaching the end of short-time working schemes and that overall employment was still drifting down. Those factory conditions sit behind movement and finishing choices that buyers now read on spec sheets, including silicon hairsprings and anti-magnetic ratings described in how silicon hairsprings and Nivachron redrew anti-magnetic watch specs.
- July 2026: almost +9.6%, above CHF 2.6 billion.
- Seven-month cumulative: back into positive territory.
- H1 2026: −0.7% at CHF 12.8 billion.
- FH full-year stance in July: close to 2025, with high uncertainty.
- Named risks: U.S. tariffs, Middle East, franc, dollar, gold.
Quartz volume at the global level remains a separate story from Swiss mechanical export value; that split is covered in how Apple Watch took quartz volume as Swiss exports shifted to mechanical luxury.
FAQ
Are 2026 Swiss watch exports growing? After seven months, yes on a cumulative basis, according to the FH July release. The first half alone was still 0.7% lower than H1 2025.
What does the FH expect for the full year? In its 21 July 2026 briefing, the federation pointed to relatively stable performance versus 2025, while stressing tariff and Middle East uncertainty.
Was July an isolated month? February had already posted a 9.2% rise, according to WatchPro’s reading of FH data. July was the month that pulled the seven-month total back above zero.